New Poll: Looking Ahead to the Midterms and the Impact of Abortion Bans

All In Together has teamed up with Lake Research and Emerson College Polling to explore what is motivating people as we look forward to the 2022 Midterms. This survey looked at 1,000 registered voters nationwide from September 22-24, 2021, with a +/-3.1% margin of error. The survey also oversampled 200 Black women, 200 Latina women, and 200 Asian American/Pacific Islander women. The oversamples were weighted down to reflect their actual proportion of women. The survey was mixed-method IVR, online, and SMS-to-web.

All In Together’s polling examines the motivations and interests behind women’s civic and political engagement. View additional insights and previous polling, and check out more of our writing and past newsletters.

Key Findings – Download the full report for additional details, data and crosstabs from our polls can be made available upon request. Please email anna@pacepublicrelations.com.

A little over a year out from the 2022 elections, COVID-19 still looms large. Voters are feeling somewhat motivated to vote, but intensity is lower among Democrats and Independents. The shifting landscape on access to abortion is amplifying this motivation, especially among Democrats, young women, Black women, Asian American/Pacific Islander women, and people who believe that abortion should be legal and generally available, and subject to only limited regulation.

The survey found:

• About three-quarters of voters say they are almost certain (51%) or probably (21%) going to vote in the election next November for Senate, Congress, and other offices.
  • Republicans (59%) are more likely than Democrats (49%) or Independents (42%) to be almost certain to vote next year, and are also more likely to be very motivated.
• The Texas abortion ban is particularly motivating to young women voters (18-29), with a large majority saying they are more interested in voting in 2022 because of the bill (72.5% more interested, 35.8% much more interested)
• If the Supreme Court does overturn Roe, over half (55%) of people would be more interested in voting in the 2022 elections. Over a quarter (27%) say Roe’s fall would make no difference in their interest in voting in 2022.
• In a generic Congressional ballot, Democrats have a 4-point advantage over Republicans among voters (45% D to 41% R). There is a large gender gap in the generic Congressional ballot.
  • Women favor the Democratic candidate by 12 points (47% Democratic candidate to 35% Republican candidate), while men favor the Republican candidate by 4 points (47% Republican candidate to 43% Democratic candidate).
• People believe that Democrats in Congress are doing a better job than Republicans in Congress on handling the COVID-19 pandemic (45% Democrats to 35% Republicans with 20% undecided).
• However, on economic recovery, people are more evenly split between who is doing better – Democrats in Congress (43%) or Republicans in Congress (40%).

Looking Ahead to the Midterms – Motivation to Vote

• Women (53%) are slightly more likely than men (49%) to be almost certain to vote next November.
  • While a solid majority of Black women (56%) and Asian American or Pacific Islander women (53%) are almost certain to vote, only 40% of Latinas are almost certain to vote.
  • Republicans (59%) are more likely than Democrats (49%) or Independents (42%) to be almost certain to vote next year.
  • Older age cohorts are more likely than younger age cohorts to be almost certain to vote next year. Three-quarters (77%) of seniors, nearly two-thirds (63%) of those ages 50 to 64, two-in-five (40%) voters ages 30 to 49, and just over a quarter (28%) of voters ages 18 to 29 are almost certain to vote next year.

• In a generic Congressional ballot, Democrats have a 4-point advantage over Republicans among voters. Forty-five percent of people would vote for the Democratic candidate in their district, and 41% would vote for the Republican candidate.
  • There is a large gender gap in the generic Congressional ballot. Women favor the Democratic candidate by 12 points (47% Democratic candidate to 35% Republican candidate), while men favor the Republican candidate by 4 points (47% Republican candidate to 43% Democratic candidate).
    • Among Black women (73% would vote for the Democratic candidate), Latinas (51%), and Asian American or Pacific Islander women (52%), the Democratic candidate enjoys a large lead over the Republican candidate in a generic congressional ballot.
  • Independents are largely undecided (49%), although 29% would vote for the Republican candidate and 22% would vote for the Democratic candidate if the election were held today.

Attitudes toward Abortion and Impact of Texas SB 8

• Americans are evenly split on the law that Texas recently passed that bans abortion after six weeks with people reporting an abortion, making it illegal for most people to get an abortion, with no exceptions for rape or incest. Forty-six percent favor this law, and 47% oppose it, with 7% unsure. Intensity is on the pro-choice or opposing side, with 32% strongly opposed to Texas’s SB8 and 23% strongly in favor of it.

• There is a large gender gap on this law. While women oppose it by 12 points, men favor it by 11 points.

• Black women (57% oppose), Latinas (52% oppose), and Asian American/Pacific Islander women (64% oppose) all oppose this law by wide margins.
  • People with more pro-choice attitudes toward abortion legality oppose the law by wide margins, while those with more pro-life attitudes favor it by wide margins.

• People split over whether their state should pass a similar law: 49% agree, 25% strongly agree, and 43% disagree that their state should pass a similar law (33% strongly disagree). Intensity is on the disagree/pro-choice side.
  • Again, men and women differ. Women disagree that their state should pass a similar law by 11 points, while men agree that their state should pass a similar law by 23 points.

The Impact of Abortion on the 2022 Midterms

• The law that bans most abortions in Texas makes over half (59%) of people more interested in voting in the 2022 elections, with nearly a third (32%) who are much more interested. Over a quarter (27%) say the Texas law makes no difference in their interest in voting in 2022. Intensity is on the pro-choice side.
  • A solid majority of Black women (58% more interested, 39% much more interested), Latinas (64% more interested, 37% much more interested), and Asian American/Pacific Islander women (63% more interested, 33% much more interested) are more interested in the 2022 elections because of the Texas law that bans abortion.
  • The Texas ban makes Democrats (68% more interested, 38% much more interested) more interested than Independents (48% more interested, 24% much more interested) or Republicans (52% more interested, 28% much more interested) to vote in the 2022 elections.

• If, as many legal experts believe, the Supreme Court does indeed do away with Roe, over half (55%) of people would be more interested in voting in the 2022 elections. Again, over a quarter (27%) say Roe’s fall would make no difference in their interest in voting in 2022.
  • Women (54% more interested, 32% much more interested) and men (57% more interested, 28% much more interested) are equally interested in voting in the 2022 elections if Roe is done away with.
    • Nearly two-thirds (64%) of Asian American/Pacific Islander women, and over half of Black (53%) and Latina women (54%) are more interested in voting in 2022 if Roe falls.
  • Democrats (66% more interested, 37% much more interested) more than Republicans (45% more interested, 21% much more interested) or Independents (48% more interested, 30% much more interested) are feeling more interested in voting in 2022 if the Supreme Court does away with Roe.
    • Nearly two-thirds of Democratic women feel more interested in voting in the 2022 elections if Roe v. Wade were done away with (64% more interested, 38% much more interested).

On the Issues

• While the agenda is diffuse, not surprisingly, the most important issue that will determine people’s vote in next year’s elections for Senate, Congress, and other offices is COVID-19 (21% say most important). This is followed by health care costs and prescription drug prices (15%), rising prices (13%), and national security (13%).
  • Men and women are fairly similar in their most important issues. Both have COVID-19 as the most important issue. For women, health care costs and prescription drug prices and national security are in a second tier, while for men rising prices and health care costs and prescription drug prices are in a second tier.

• Democrats, Independents, and Republicans have distinct issue agendas for the 2022 Midterms.

% Most Important Issue	All Voters	Democrat	Independent	Republican
COVID-19	21	25	19	17
Healthcare costs and prescription drug prices	15	19	16	10
Rising prices	13	8	14	19
National security	13	7	11	21
Climate change	9	13	8	4
Taxes	8	6	8	12
Abortion	7	7	9	6
Jobs	7	7	8	6
Crime	4	4	4	4
Child care, elder care, and paid family medical leave	3	4	4	2

• Among Black women, COVID-19 is the most important issue by far.
  • Latina women have a much more diffuse agenda – their most important issues include COVID-19, health care costs and prescription drug prices, rising prices, jobs, and abortion.
  • Among Asian American/Pacific Islander women, the most important issue is COVID-19, followed by health care costs and prescription drug prices, and national security.

The COVID-19 Context

• People believe that Democrats in Congress are doing a better job than Republicans in Congress on handling the COVID-19 pandemic (45% Democrats to 35% Republicans with 20% undecided).
  • Women believe Democrats are doing a better job at handling COVID-19 by wide margins (45% Democrats better, 29% Republicans better). Conversely, men give Democrats just a 4-point advantage (45% Democrats, 41% Republicans).
    • Over half of Black women (63%), Latinas (54%), and Asian American or Pacific Islander women (52%) believe that Democrats in Congress are doing a better job handling the COVID-19 pandemic. 
  • Independents are more unsure (43%) about which party in Congress is doing better at handling COVID-19. Among Independents, 31% think Democrats are doing better, and 26% think Republicans are doing better.

• However, on economic recovery, people are more evenly split between who is doing better – Democrats in Congress (43%) or Republicans in Congress (40%).
  • Women still give Democrats in Congress a wide advantage on economic recovery (44% Democrats to 35% Republicans). However, men give Republicans a narrow advantage on handling the economic recovery (46% Republicans, 42% Democrats).
  • Independents split between being unsure (38%) about which party is handling economic recovery better and thinking Republicans (36%) are handling it better. Among Independents, 26% think Democrats are doing better on economic recovery.

• When it comes to the job their governor has done to manage the COVID-19 responses in their states, people rate their governor as doing excellent or good (59%), but only one-in-five (20%) say their governor is doing excellent. Thirty-nine percent say their governor is doing poor (20%) or just fair (19%).
  • There is little difference between those who live in a state with a Democratic governor (57% excellent or good, 20% excellent) and those who live in a state with a Republican governor (60% excellent or good, 21% excellent). A Republican governor has a slight edge, but it is within the margin of error.
  • Men (63% excellent or good, 21% excellent) are more likely than women (55% excellent or good, 20% excellent) to think their governor is doing an excellent or good job to manage the COVID-19 response in their state.

• Similarly, when rating the job that local elected officials have done to manage the COVID-19 response in local schools, over half of voters rate local electeds as doing well (55%), but only 16% say they are doing an excellent job. Two-in-five (40%) rate the job their local elected officials have done to manage the COVID-19 response in local schools as poor (16%) or just fair (24%).
  • Parents are more likely than people who do not have children under 18 in their households to rate local elected officials as doing a good job managing the COVID-19 response in local schools.
    • Have children under 18: 64% excellent or good, 20% excellent
    • No children under 18: 49% excellent or good, 13% excellent
  • A solid majority of men (60% excellent or good, 18% excellent) rate their local elected officials as doing a good job managing COVID-19 in local schools. About half of women (49% excellent or good, 14% excellent) think they’ve done a good job.
    

• Knowing that the coronavirus pandemic pushed millions of American women out of the workforce and that this school year, public K-12 schools have reopened for in-person learning, three-quarters (76%) of voters think that schools reopening will have a big impact (29%) or some impact (47%) on women’s ability to go back to work.
  • About three-quarters of men (76%) and women (77%) think schools re-opening will have an impact, but women are more likely than men to say it will have a big impact (35% among women to 24% among men).
    • Across race, women say K-12 schools re-opening will impact women’s ability to return to work:
      • Black women – 77% impact, 39% big impact
      • Latinas – 75% impact, 31% big impact
      • Asian American/Pacific Islander women – 80% impact, 40% big impact
  • People with children at home (79%) and those without children under 18 (75%) see an impact of K-12 schools re-opening on women’s ability to go back to work.