The non-partisan advocacy group All in Together has teamed up with Lake Research and Emerson College Polling to study women voters in 2020. The second survey of the study being released looked at 1,273 registered women voters nationwide from August 30-September 1 with a +/-2.75% margin of error. The survey also oversampled 668 registered women voters in the following Battleground states: WI, MN, AZ, NC, VA, CO, NH, FL, MI, and PA with a +/-3.8% margin of error. The oversample was weighted down to reflect their actual proportion of women voters.
The poll was a probability based sample design with automated data collection via landlines and cellphones using voter registration lists and supplemented with an online panel of opt-in participants of younger voters.
Women voters, particularly women in Battleground states, will make a significant difference in the 2020 election. All In Together conducted the most comprehensive survey of women voters to date which definitively shows that while President Donald Trump has tried to appeal to women voters, particularly suburban women, with his law and order messaging, his efforts are not working. Across nearly every group of women voters, Biden holds a significant polling advantage.
However, President Trump does hold an advantage with non-college educated white women. They voted for him in 2016 and are poised to vote for him again. This could be significant in the Battleground states where white non-college women are 23 percent of the likely electorate while white college women are 17 percent of the likely electorate.
As with every election for the past 40 years, there is a gender gap in the presidential ballot. Women voters favor Biden by 11-points, men voters prefer Trump by a 7-point margin (50% Trump, 43% Biden, 7% undecided), for a gender gap of 18-points.
Of course, women are not a monolith, and race, age, urbanicity, and education impact their vote:
Key groups of women swing voters are leaning towards Biden. Despite the Trump campaign’s efforts to gain suburban women’s support, they are breaking for Biden by a 14% margin. Senior women are also voting for Biden (54%) over Trump (42%) with 5% undecided.
Black women continue to be Biden’s strongest supporters (84% support to 12% support for Trump). Women under 30 are voting for Biden by the widest margin behind Black women (79% Biden, 18% Trump, 3% undecided).
Trump holds a slight advantage over Biden with White women, and white non-college educated women are voting for Trump at a higher margin (59% vs 37% for Biden) than white women overall.
Of the women who usually vote for Republicans, 25% are voting for Biden this year (71% are voting for Trump), and the women who say they usually split their ticket are voting for Biden this year (47% Biden, 41% Trump).
Attitudes toward President Trump
Women voters have an unfavorable view of President Trump (55% unfavorable, 48% very unfavorable), while 44% have a favorable view of him.
Half of women in Battleground states have very unfavorable view of the President, and nearly half (48%) of suburban women voters have a very unfavorable impression of Trump.
One group that is more likely to have very favorable impressions of Trump are white non-college educated women, who are more likely to have a very favorable (38%) rather than a very unfavorable (33%) impression of Trump.
Women voters trust Joe Biden more than Donald Trump to handle key issues:
- Women give Biden a 23-point advantage on race relations (57% trust Biden more to 34% trust Trump more).
- Biden has a 21-point advantage among women on handling the coronavirus pandemic (57% to 36%).
- Women give Biden a 14-point advantage on reopening schools (52% to 38%).
- Women give Biden a 10-point advantage on law and order (52% to 42%).
- Finally, women give Biden an 8-point advantage on economic recovery (51% to 43%).
Across key demographic and attitudinal subgroups, women voters trust Biden more than Trump to handle law and order, reopening schools, economic recovery, handling the coronavirus pandemic, and race relations.
|Law and Order||Trust Biden More||Trust Trump More||Margin|
|Reopening Schools||Trust Biden More||Trust Trump More||Margin|
|Coronavirus Pandemic||Trust Biden More||Trust Trump More||Margin|
|Race Relations||Trust Biden More||Trust Trump More||Margin|
Women voters think Biden, not Trump, will make them and their communities safer. Women voters think the policies of the Trump Administration have made them less safe (44%), while 33% think these policies have made them “more safe,” and 22% say they have made no difference.
Women voters who say the policies of the Trump administration have made “no difference” in the safety of their communities were swing voters in 2016 but are now voting for Biden by wide margins.
- Fifty percent are voting for Biden, 37% are voting for Trump.
- In 2016, 39% voted for Trump, and 42% voted for Clinton.
Exercising the Right to Vote in 2020
Even with the push by media, non-profits, and candidates to get people to vote early or by-mail, women voters are mixed on how they plan to vote, with 37% who are voting in-person on election day, 32% voting by mail, 19% voting in-person early, and 11% who are not sure.
Over a third of suburban women say they will vote in-person on election day (35%), followed by voting by mail (29%). Only 2% of suburban women say they are not voting.
Women in Battleground states lean toward voting by mail (37%), although 33% will vote in-person on election day. Only 2% say they are not voting. Independent women plan on voting either by mail (29%), in-person on election day (28%), or in-person early (25%). Only 2% say they are not voting. Seniors split between voting by mail (38%) and in-person on election day (36%).
How partisans plan to vote is polarized: Democratic women are most likely to vote by mail (42%), followed by in-person on election day (34%), in-person early 15%, and 9% are not sure, while Republican women are most likely to vote in-person on election day (47%), followed by voting by mail (22%), voting in-person early (20%), and 11% are not sure.
About All In Together
All In Together encourages, equips, educates, and empowers voting-age women and those who identify as women to participate fully in America’s civic and political life. Our vision is a truly representative American democracy, influenced at every level by the wisdom and power of women. AIT is the only national organization empowering and mobilizing women across the political spectrum to become advocates and leaders at work and in their communities.