New polling from All In Together examined the change in interest in voting in the 2022 midterm elections following the Supreme Court Decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health, compared to when AIT asked the same question in September 2021. The survey was conducted June 28-29, 2022, in partnership with Emersion College Polling, from a national sample of 1,271 registered voters. Detailed survey methodology can be found on the last page of this report.
The Post-Roe Landscape
All In Together’s poll from September 2021 asked voters “If Roe v. Wade were done away with, would that make you more or less interested in voting in the 2022 elections, or does it not make a difference to you?” Repeating this same question in June 2022, following the decision to overturn Roe found an increase in voting interest, particularly among Democratic-leaning groups.
Unsurprisingly, Roe is a motivating factor for women in the midterm elections.
Young Women Are Changing Their Minds on Voting
Young women have the biggest shift in motivation from when we first asked this question in September of 2021. Previous AIT polling from September 2021 and March 2022 found low motivation among young women to vote in the 2022 midterms, but that abortion and Roe were motivating issues. In this poll, interest in voting in the midterms increased by 26-points among women 18-29.
Democrats Are Activated
The Roe decision is galvanizing for Democrats. Independent women are also much more interested compared to September. For Republicans, however, including for Republican women, motivation around Roe and abortion did not change as much from September to June.
Women by Race
The Roe decision is motivating women across all racial groups. Previous AIT polling found a declining trend in motivation to vote among Hispanic women voters. The major jump in interest in voting due to the Roe decision (21-points) may help to break that trend. Black women’s interest in the midterms also spiked 21 points between September 2021 and June 2022.
Women by Education
In less than a year, the changes to abortion laws and access in the United States have had a major impact on the political engagement of women across demographic groups. Our previous polling
from this year showed a major advantage in motivation for Republicans going into the midterm elections, but this new data suggests the tide may be turning.
The overturning of Roe will have a long-term impact on electoral outcomes, only the beginnings of which we are starting to see in this data. All In Together will be continuing to track this and other questions of vote motivation and election engagement throughout the midterm elections. More of AIT’s polling and insights can be found on aitogether.org. Crosstabs can be made available on request to firstname.lastname@example.org
The survey was administered by Emerson College Polling. The national poll of voters was conducted June 28-29, 2022. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=1,271, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 2.7 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, region, age, education, and race/ethnicity based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines and an online panel provided by CloudResearch.