All In Together’s National Survey Results
All In Together’s Recent Survey Show Fears Of Political Division, While Many Are Also Motivated By Opposition To Trump
This page reflects the findings of a national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters conducted by GBAO, a polling and strategic consulting firm, on behalf of All In Together. The poll was conducted August 2-6, 2019, via online panel, and is subject to a +/- 3.1 percentage point margin of error at the 95 percent confidence level.
- People feel our political divisions have gotten worse.
- Trump is a motivator, particularly with Democrats, seemingly driving voting enthusiasm, news consumption, and perhaps some political action.
- More are voting Democratic than for Trump, but not everyone thinks America will vote with them.
- Similarly, while many are personally engaged by women candidates, they think a woman Democratic nominee might not be successful.
- While, of course, women need not be better representatives to warrant political parity, more women believe women electeds are better representatives.
- Women seem more motivated by Trump, but are less engaged than men overall. Social media is the exception.
People feel we’re divided, it’s gotten worse, and will only get slightly better.
% Who Think Country is Very Politically Divided
Clear majorities say our country is “very politically divided,” with just a handful thinking that we’re not. Almost half as many recall the country being this divided before the 2016 election, with women remembering less division than men. There is just a hint of optimism about the future; slightly smaller majorities think we’ll be “very politically divided” in the next two to three years.
Given the topic is division, it’s notable to see only slight partisan divisions. Democrats are somewhat more likely than Republicans to feel we’re divided now, and are more pessimistic about the future. Republicans recall being divided more than Democrats do. Men are more pessimistic than women about past and future divisions, and it’s a trend that transcends party lines.
Trump is a vote-motivator, particularly with Democrats.
Trump is motivating voters to act. Two-thirds say Trump’s 2016 election has made them more motivated to vote in 2020, with Democrats more likely (78%) than Republicans (64%). While men are more likely than women to say they will vote overall, and that they are very motivated to vote, Democratic women are the most likely (79%) to say Trump’s election has made them more motivated to vote in 2020.
President Trump’s Impact on Motivation to Vote in 2020
Further, Democrats are more likely to label 2020 as the “most important election in my lifetime” (38%), while a plurality of independents and Republicans say it’s “just as important as all the others” (44%, 40%, respectively).
This Translates to Vulnerabilities for Trump.
With this backdrop, Trump has vulnerabilities. A majority (53%) say they will vote for the Democratic candidate for president in 2020, with only 35% saying they will vote for Trump. Democrats are more consolidated (96%) than are Republicans (80%), and independents give a generic Democrat an 18-point margin. Trump’s vulnerability comes from non-Democratic women, who are more likely to vote for the Democrat than are their male partisan counterparts.
Likely Presidential Vote in 2020
On one of his campaign promises—changing Washington—about half actually think Trump has made it worse (49%), with fewer seeing him as changing it for the better (28%) or not at all (23%). Democrats are more likely to say “worse” (81%) than Republicans are likely to say “better” (61%), with half of independents labeling it as “worse” (48%). Women across party lines are more likely than men to say “worse.”
From a short list of three issues, Trump’s recent “go back” tweet is the one voters say makes them least likely to vote for Trump (45% less likely). It is particularly compelling to those undecided in the 2020 election (40% less likely), among those who didn’t vote in the 2018 midterms (53% less likely), and those who didn’t vote in 2016 or voted for a third party candidate (68% and 55%, respectively).
Voters feel positive about women candidates, but are not sure others share that view.
It’s not all warning signs for Trump. Trump’s 18-point deficit in the generic shrinks to 7 points when we ask who is likely to win (53% Dem, 47% Trump). Women are quite a bit more likely than men to expect the Democrat to win (+15 vs. -3, respectively), a pattern that holds across party lines.
However, Americans’ assessment changes when we ask them to predict the outcome if “the Democratic nominee is a woman.” Then, voters give Trump the edge (+9), with a similarly wide difference between men’s and women’s responses (men: +15 for Trump; women: +3), although women move more.
This difference also largely comes from Democrats and independents. Democrats give the Democratic candidate a 69-point advantage in likelihood, but a 48-point advantage if the nominee is a woman, and independents give the Democrat an 11-point advantage but a 10-point deficit if the nominee is a woman. Across party lines, women’s confidence in a woman nominee’s chances drops farther than does men’s.
Who Men and Women Think Will Win In 2020
About one in ten (9%) think the Democratic nominee would win, but not if it’s a woman; those who feel negatively about our politics today seem more likely to have these views. Those who say we’re more divided now than in the past are particularly likely to hold these views (15%), as are those who say government dysfunction is the top issue facing the country today (14%), older Democrats and older independents (14%), and white college-educated women (15%).
This is not to say voters don’t support women candidates themselves. A clear majority (58%) say “the increase in female candidates has been a good thing for the country” with only slight differences by gender (56% men, 60% women). It seems likely many doubters personally support women candidates but assume others think differently.
Further, women are particularly likely to say women elected officials “do a better job than men at representing people like you” (42% of women, 23% of men). The gender gap is especially large among Democrats (65% Democratic women, 35% Democratic men).
At-home actions are most common, and just a few will be more active in 2020.
Remote or at-home political actions are the most common, while in-person actions like volunteering or marching are least so. Overall, the action the most voters are likely to take in the future is discussing support for a candidate or issue with a family member, co-worker, or friends with 73% saying they are likely to do so. In terms of political discussions, voters are most likely to discuss politics with their spouse (59%) or their friends (59%). Men are more likely to discuss politics with most groups tested, though women are slightly more likely to talk about politics with their parents. More men and women discuss politics with their mom than with their dad.
Roughly equal amounts of men and women plan to volunteer for a candidate, organization or issue (men: 29%; women: 27%). There is a gender gap in those likely to donate to a candidate in the future with 5% more men saying they are likely to donate.
Yet caregivers of a parent or child—who are disproportionately (58%) female—are particularly likely to say they will take an action. About a quarter (23%) say they will take at least five actions before the 2020 election, compared to 11% of voters overall. White suburban women and men—often labeled key political swing targets—are less likely to take an action (5% and 7%, respectively).
Future Participation: Likelihood of Doing the Following Activities Before the 2020 Election
For the most part, we see little likely increase in political actions. When comparing individual actions taken in 2016 to actions voters say they’re likely to do before 2020, fewer than one-in-ten (8%) plan to participate in politics more. However, that 8% is disproportionately Democrats (12% of Democrats) and young Democrats (15%).
Women Less Likely to Closely Follow Politics, But More Active on Social Media.
Overall, men are more likely say they follow politics “extremely closely” than are women, but only among Republicans and Independents. Democratic men and women are equally likely to say they follow politics extremely closely (men: 25%; women: 23%).
As we’ve seen elsewhere, while men may be slightly more engaged overall, Democrats and women are more likely to say the 2016 election has spurred their engagement. Overall, more are paying more attention since the 2016 election to both national politics (61%) and to a lesser extent local politics (46%). Party differences here are stark; three-fourths (75%) of Democrats are now paying more attention to politics, compared to 53% of Republicans, and more Democrats are paying more attention to local politics (58%) than are Republicans (37%).
Across party and gender groups, Democratic women are the most likely to say they are now following both national and local politics more after the 2016 election (56%), with independent men the least likely (29%). And non-white women are particularly likely (53%) to say they are paying more attention compared to white women (37%).
Specific news outlets reveal some gender differences and preferences. Men are slightly more likely than women to watch cable news, listen to radio or podcasts, and read a local newspaper. Women are more likely than men to watch broadcast news and rely on social media. Across platforms, women are bigger regular social media users than men (or are more willing to admit to it), whether it’s Facebook (+13), Instagram (+8), Pinterest (+22) or Snapchat (+10).
These conclusions are clear that despite increased activism online, voters are not getting more involved in other kinds of political activism with fewer than one-in-ten (8%) planning to participate more in politics beyond voting (contributing to a campaign, volunteering etc).
All In Together CEO Lauren Leader explained, “the polls point to a mismatch in motivation and action. Democratic women are highly motivated to beat Trump in 2020 yet focus most of their energy on social media rather than committing to going out and working to help their preferred candidates win. Men are still more likely to donate to candidates or volunteer to help them win and these are actions that make the most tangible difference in outcomes. Social media alone does not translate to political power in electoral politics. Mobilization is just as, if not more important.”
About All In Together
All In Together (AIT) encourages, equips, educates, and empowers voting-age women to participate fully in America’s civic and political life. AIT is the only nonpartisan women’s organization committed to delivering cross-sector, innovative solutions to advance the progress of women’s leadership potential in their communities, their companies, the nation, and for themselves.