September 12, 2022
Abortion Continues to be a Motivating Factor for November
After a massive increase in voter motivation among women in the immediate weeks following the Dobbs decision, new AIT polling finds that motivation around the issue is still high. Motivation is particularly high among Democratic women and younger voters.
Among voters most activated by the Dobbs decision, 80% of them are almost certain to vote in the midterms, (compared to 62% of voters overall) and 66% plan to vote for the Democratic Congressional candidate (compared to 44% of voters overall). This tracks with recent data showing the surge in voter registration among women in states where the upcoming elections could make or break abortion access.
While much of the focus on the impact of the abortion has understandably been on women, our poll found that the Dobbs decision is just as motivating for Democratic men. The overturning of Roe also continues to be a motivating issue for just over half of Independent women and a plurality of Independent men as well.
Younger voters are also extremely motivated by overturning of Roe across genders. 18-34 year old Democrats are the most driven by the issue, but it is a driver for a majority of younger Independents as well.
Partisan Enthusiasm Gap Closing
When we polled likelihood to vote in March 2022, we found a 10-point gap in vote certainty between Republicans and Democrats overall, and a 7-point gap between Republican and Democratic Women.
In this poll, the gap has shrunk to 3-points among Republicans and Democrats overall (64% vs 61% almost certain to vote respectively) and has disappeared among Democratic and Republican women.
Likely turnout among Independents is lower, with half of Independent women (51%) are almost certain to vote in the midterms. Our poll also found that close to half of 18-34 year old voters are almost certain to vote in the midterms (48%).
- However, voter registration among voters ages 18-29 is actually lower this cycle than it was in 2018, according to the data and research from CIRCLE, and turnout among this group is unlikely to match the 50% turnout seen in the 2020 elections.
Negative Views of Both Parties
Despite much discussion of partisan infighting on both sides, our poll found that women voters of both parties generally find that their own party shares their values. However, 17% of Republican women say neither party shares their values, and almost a third of Republican women voters say their party doesn’t care about people like them. These numbers are similar to the views of younger Republicans across both genders.
The Democratic party holds an advantage with women overall compared to the Republican party, but a plurality (46%) of independent women are dissatisfied with both parties. This number goes up with younger voters, with a majority (57%) of Independents between 18-34 saying neither party cares about people like them.
Suburban women, a key swing group in 2018, are divided on this question, with 39% saying their values are more in line with the Democratic party versus 35% saying the Republican party better shares their values.
The poll was conducted for All In Together by Emerson College Polling August 23-24, 2022. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=1,000, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, party affiliation, region, age, education, and race/ethnicity based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, party, age, education, and race/ethnicity carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines and an online panel.